Most of my positions got stopped out on Monday, and it appears that I may have to chase the market higher for re-entry - in other words, I may have to re-enter at higher prices than I sold out at. However, the market has listlessly traded sideways the last couple of days, so rather than chase at this point, I will wait for conviction one way or the other. I am particularly watching IBM to see if it makes a new high above 99.60 - there is also Fibonacci resistance at that level.
Also on IBM, there is a candlestick pattern that shows that the strong hands may be selling to the weak hands - the March 30 candlestick started out lower than the previous day, but ended higher, with the close at the middle of the body of the previous day, on volume lighter than the previous two days.
I would also like to see the S&P go above 800 and hold; if it does not, we may revisit 741 - which would be nice, because that would be a perfect head and shoulders bottom.
So at this point, I have spotted my mistake in selling too early - I should have realized that the highs would have been re-visited, or I should have set my stops tighter to sell at higher levels. But at least I sold at profits, and I will wait in cash for conviction one way or another.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
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